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Uncertainties In Numerical Weather Prediction

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Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction

Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction Book
Author : Haraldur Olafsson,Jian-Wen Bao
Publisher : Elsevier
Release : 2020-12-08
ISBN : 0128157100
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction is a comprehensive work on the most current understandings of uncertainties and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere. It provides general knowledge on all aspects of uncertainties in the weather prediction models in a single, easy to use reference. The book illustrates particular uncertainties in observations and data assimilation, as well as the errors associated with numerical integration methods. Stochastic methods in parameterization of subgrid processes are also assessed, as are uncertainties associated with surface-atmosphere exchange, orographic flows and processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Through a better understanding of the uncertainties to watch for, readers will be able to produce more precise and accurate forecasts. This is an essential work for anyone who wants to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting and interested parties developing tools to enhance the quality of such forecasts. Provides a comprehensive overview of the state of numerical weather prediction at spatial scales, from hundreds of meters, to thousands of kilometers Focuses on short-term 1-15 day atmospheric predictions, with some coverage appropriate for longer-term forecasts Includes references to climate prediction models to allow applications of these techniques for climate simulations

Meteorology at the Millennium

Meteorology at the Millennium Book
Author : Robert P. Pearce
Publisher : Elsevier
Release : 2005-02-22
ISBN : 008051149X
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Meteorology at the Millennium details recent advances in meteorology and explores its interfaces with science, technology, and society. Ways in which modern meteorology is contributing to the developments in other sciences are described, as well as how atmospheric scientists are learning from colleagues in related disciplines. Meteorology at the Millennium will serve as a point of reference for students and researchers of meteorology and climatology for many years to come. The areas covered include weather prediction at the millennium, climate variability and change, atmosphere-ocean coupling, the biogeochemical system, weather on other planets. This book is a compilation of the best invited papers presented at a conference celebrating the 150 years of the Royal Meteorological Society (RMS).

Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling

Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling Book
Author : András Bátkai,Petra Csomós,István Faragó,András Horányi,Gabriella Szépszó
Publisher : Springer
Release : 2016-11-08
ISBN : 3319401572
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This book deals with mathematical problems arising in the context of meteorological modelling. It gathers and presents some of the most interesting and important issues from the interaction of mathematics and meteorology. It is unique in that it features contributions on topics like data assimilation, ensemble prediction, numerical methods, and transport modelling, from both mathematical and meteorological perspectives. The derivation and solution of all kinds of numerical prediction models require the application of results from various mathematical fields. The present volume is divided into three parts, moving from mathematical and numerical problems through air quality modelling, to advanced applications in data assimilation and probabilistic forecasting. The book arose from the workshop “Mathematical Problems in Meteorological Modelling” held in Budapest in May 2014 and organized by the ECMI Special Interest Group on Numerical Weather Prediction. Its main objective is to highlight the beauty of the development fields discussed, to demonstrate their mathematical complexity and, more importantly, to encourage mathematicians to contribute to the further success of such practical applications as weather forecasting and climate change projections. Written by leading experts in the field, the book provides an attractive and diverse introduction to areas in which mathematicians and modellers from the meteorological community can cooperate and help each other solve the problems that operational weather centres face, now and in the near future. Readers engaged in meteorological research will become more familiar with the corresponding mathematical background, while mathematicians working in numerical analysis, partial differential equations, or stochastic analysis will be introduced to further application fields of their research area, and will find stimulation and motivation for their future research work.

Air Traffic Management and Systems III

Air Traffic Management and Systems III Book
Author : Electronic Navigation Research Institute
Publisher : Springer
Release : 2019-06-21
ISBN : 9811370869
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This proceedings provides novel concepts and techniques for air traffic management (ATM) and communications, navigation, and surveillance (CNS) systems. The volume consists of selected papers from the 5th ENRI International Workshop on ATM/CNS (EIWAC2017) held in Tokyo in November 2017, the theme of which was “Drafting Future Skies”. Included are key topics to realize safer and more efficient skies in the future, linked to the integrated conference theme consisting of long-term visions based on presentations from various fields. The proceedings is dedicated not only to researchers, academicians, and university students, but also to engineers in the industry, air navigation service providers (ANSPs), and regulators of aviation.

Monthly Weather Review

Monthly Weather Review Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 1999
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Monthly Weather Review book written by , available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment

Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment Book
Author : Karin Riley,Peter Webley,Matthew Thompson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Release : 2016-11-15
ISBN : 1119028108
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction

Advances in Hydroinformatics

Advances in Hydroinformatics Book
Author : Philippe Gourbesville,Jean Cunge,Guy Caignaert
Publisher : Springer
Release : 2018-02-26
ISBN : 9811072183
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This book gathers a collection of extended papers based on presentations given during the SimHydro 2017 conference, held in Sophia Antipolis, Nice, France on June 14–16, 2017. It focuses on how to choose the right model in applied hydraulics and considers various aspects, including the modeling and simulation of fast hydraulic transients, 3D modeling, uncertainties and multiphase flows. The book explores both limitations and performance of current models and presents the latest developments in new numerical schemes, high-performance computing, multiphysics and multiscale methods, and better interaction with field or scale model data. It gathers the lastest theoretical and innovative developments in the modeling field and presents some of the most advance applications on various water related topics like uncertainties, flood simulation and complex hydraulic applications. Given its breadth of coverage, it addresses the needs and interests of practitioners, stakeholders, researchers and engineers alike.

Diagnosing the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition Using Multimodel Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems

Diagnosing the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition Using Multimodel Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems Book
Author : Julia Henriette Keller
Publisher : KIT Scientific Publishing
Release : 2012
ISBN : 3866449844
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Diagnosing the Downstream Impact of Extratropical Transition Using Multimodel Operational Ensemble Prediction Systems book written by Julia Henriette Keller, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Completing the Forecast

Completing the Forecast Book
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publisher : National Academies Press
Release : 2006-10-09
ISBN : 9780309180535
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Flood Handbook

Flood Handbook Book
Author : Saeid Eslamian,Faezeh Eslamian
Publisher : CRC Press
Release : 2022-04-11
ISBN : 042987412X
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Floods are difficult to prevent but can be managed in order to reduce their environmental, social, cultural, and economic impacts. Flooding poses a serious threat to life and property, and therefore it’s very important that flood risks be taken into account during any planning process. This handbook presents different aspects of flooding in the context of a changing climate and across various geographical locations. Written by experts from around the world, it examines flooding in various climates and landscapes, taking into account environmental, ecological, hydrological, and geomorphic factors, and considers urban, agricultural, rangeland, forest, coastal, and desert areas. Features: Presents the main principles and applications of the science of floods, including engineering and technology, natural science, and sociological implications. Considers floods in urban, agricultural, rangeland, forest, coastal, and desert areas. Covers flood control structures as well as preparedness and response methods. Written in a global context, by contributors from around the world.

Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling

Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling Book
Author : José Eduardo Souza De Cursi
Publisher : Springer Nature
Release : 2020-08-19
ISBN : 3030536696
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This proceedings book discusses state-of-the-art research on uncertainty quantification in mechanical engineering, including statistical data concerning the entries and parameters of a system to produce statistical data on the outputs of the system. It is based on papers presented at Uncertainties 2020, a workshop organized on behalf of the Scientific Committee on Uncertainty in Mechanics (Mécanique et Incertain) of the AFM (French Society of Mechanical Sciences), the Scientific Committee on Stochastic Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification of the ABCM (Brazilian Society of Mechanical Sciences) and the SBMAC (Brazilian Society of Applied Mathematics).

Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty Quantification Book
Author : Ralph C. Smith
Publisher : SIAM
Release : 2013-12-02
ISBN : 1611973228
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers can find data used in the exercises and other supplementary material.

Climate Change and Regional Local Responses

Climate Change and Regional Local Responses Book
Author : Pallav Ray,Yuanzhi Zhang
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
Release : 2013-05-22
ISBN : 9535111329
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Understanding climate change requires analysis of its effects in specific contexts, and the case studies in this volume offer examples of such issues. Its chapters cover tropical cyclones in East Asia, study of a fossil in Brazils Araripe Basin and the fractal nature of band-thickness in an iron formation of Canadas Northwest Territories. One chapter examines the presence of trace elements and palynomorphs in the sediments of a tropical urban pond. Examples of technologies used include RS- GIS to map lineaments for groundwater targeting and sustainable water-resource management, the ALADIN numerical weather-prediction model used to forecast weather and use of grids in numerical weather and climate models. Finally, one chapter models sea level rises resulting from ice sheets melting.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis Volume II

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis  Volume II Book
Author : Dan G. Cacuci,Mihaela Ionescu-Bujor,Ionel Michael Navon
Publisher : CRC Press
Release : 2005-05-16
ISBN : 020348357X
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative convective model for climate simulations, and large-scale models for numerical weather prediction.

Statistical Theories and Computational Approaches to Turbulence

Statistical Theories and Computational Approaches to Turbulence Book
Author : Y. Kaneda,T. Gotoh
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Release : 2013-03-09
ISBN : 4431670025
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This volume contains the papers presented at the workshop on Statistical The ories and Computational Approaches to Turbulence: Modern Perspectives and Applications to Global-Scale Flows, held October 10-13, 2001, at Nagoya Uni versity, Nagoya, Japan. Because of recent developments in computational capabilities, the compu tational approach is showing the potential to resolve a much wider range of length and time scales in turbulent physical systems. Nevertheless, even with the largest supercomputers of the foreseeable future, development of adequate modeling techniques for at least some scales of motion will be necessary for practical computations of important problems such as weather forecasting and the prediction and control of global pollution. The more powerful the available machines become, the more demand there will be for precise prediction of the systems. This means that more precise and reliable knowledge of the underlying dynamics will become important, and that more efficient and precise numerical methods best adapted to the new generation of computers will be necessary. The understanding of the nature of unresolved scales then will playa key role in the modeling of turbulent motion. The challenge to turbulence theory here is to elucidate the physics or dynamics of those scales, in particular their sta tistical aspects, and thereby develop models on sound bases to reduce modeling ambiguity. The challenge to the computational method is to develop efficient algorithms suitable for the problems, the machines, and the developed models.

River Basin Management VI

River Basin Management VI Book
Author : C. A. Brebbia
Publisher : WIT Press
Release : 2011
ISBN : 1845645162
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

In recent years, significant advances have been made in the development and application of software tools for predicting the flow, water quality,sediment transport and ecological processes in river systems. Since 2001, the Wessex Institute of Technology has organized a biennial conference to facilitate the sharing of these advances. This book contains the papers presented at the latest conference in the series. The papers presented at the Conference cover Water resources management;Flood studies; Ecological and environmental impact; Erosion and sediment transport; Hydrological modelling; Eco-hydraulics; River restoration and rehabilitation; Hydropower production; River and watershed management; Water quality issues; Trans-boundary river issues; Estuaries and deltas; Changing Climate; Droughts and desertification; Water and health; and Socio-economic and political issues.

Practical Hydroinformatics

Practical Hydroinformatics Book
Author : Robert J. Abrahart,Linda M. See,Dimitri P. Solomatine
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Release : 2008-10-24
ISBN : 3540798811
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Hydroinformatics is an emerging subject that is expected to gather speed, momentum and critical mass throughout the forthcoming decades of the 21st century. This book provides a broad account of numerous advances in that field - a rapidly developing discipline covering the application of information and communication technologies, modelling and computational intelligence in aquatic environments. A systematic survey, classified according to the methods used (neural networks, fuzzy logic and evolutionary optimization, in particular) is offered, together with illustrated practical applications for solving various water-related issues. ...

Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards

Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards Book
Author : Jonathan Rougier,Steve Sparks,Lisa J. Hill,Robert Stephen John Sparks
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Release : 2013-02-21
ISBN : 1107006198
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

A state-of-the-art overview of natural hazard risk assessment, for researchers and professionals in natural-hazard science, risk management and environmental science.

Numerical Weather Prediction Activities

Numerical Weather Prediction Activities Book
Author : United States. National Weather Service
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 1972
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Numerical Weather Prediction Activities book written by United States. National Weather Service, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Numerical Weather Prediction Activities

Numerical Weather Prediction Activities Book
Author : National Meteorological Center (U.S.)
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 1970
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Numerical Weather Prediction Activities book written by National Meteorological Center (U.S.), available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.