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Superforecasting

Superforecasting Book
Author : Philip Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Publisher : Random House
Release : 2015-09-24
ISBN : 1448166594
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

Probability Choice and Reason

Probability  Choice  and Reason Book
Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher : CRC Press
Release : 2021-09-15
ISBN : 1000458873
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world. Features: An insightful and engaging discussion of some of the key ideas of probabilistic and statistical thinking Many classic and novel problems, paradoxes, and puzzles An exploration of some of the big questions involving the use of choice and reason in an uncertain world The application of probability, statistics, and Bayesian methods to a wide range of subjects, including economics, finance, law, and medicine Exercises, references, and links for those wishing to cross-reference or to probe further Solutions to exercises at the end of the book This book should serve as an invaluable and fascinating resource for university, college, and high school students who wish to extend their reading, as well as for teachers and lecturers who want to liven up their courses while retaining academic rigour. It will also appeal to anyone who wishes to develop skills with numbers or has an interest in the many statistical and other paradoxes that permeate our lives. Indeed, anyone studying the sciences, social sciences, or humanities on a formal or informal basis will enjoy and benefit from this book.

The Open Society and Its Complexities

The Open Society and Its Complexities Book
Author : Gerald Gaus
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Release : 2021-08-06
ISBN : 0190648996
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

A mere two decades ago it was widely assumed that liberal democracy and the Open Society it created had decisively won their century-long struggle against authoritarianism. Although subsequent events have shocked many, F.A. Hayek would not have been surprised that we are in many ways disoriented by the society we have created. As he understood it, the Open Society was a precarious achievement in many ways at odds with our deepest moral sentiments. His path-breaking analyses argued that the Open Society runs against our evolved attraction to "tribalism" that the Open Society is too complex for moral justification; and that its self-organized complexity defies attempts at democratic governance. In his final, wide-ranging book, Gerald Gaus critically reexamines Hayek's analyses. Drawing on diverse work in social and moral science, Gaus argues that Hayek's program was manifestly prescient and strikingly sophisticated, always identifying real and pressing problems. Yet, Gaus maintains, Hayek underestimated the resources of human morality and the Open Society to cope with the challenges he perceived. Gaus marshals formal models and empirical evidence to show that our Open Society is grounded on moral foundations of human cooperation originating in our distant evolutionary past, but has built upon them a complex and diverse society that requires us to rethink both the nature of moral justification and the meaning of democratic self-governance. In these fearful, angry and inwardly-looking times, when political philosophy has itself become a hostile exchange between ideological camps, The Open Society and Its Complexities shows how moral and ideological diversity, so far from being the enemy of a free and open society, can be its foundation.

Law War and the Penumbra of Uncertainty

Law  War and the Penumbra of Uncertainty Book
Author : Sam Selvadurai
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Release : 2022-04-07
ISBN : 1316511987
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

An exploration into how uncertainty and political and ethical biases affect international law governing the use of force.

Bulletproof Problem Solving

Bulletproof Problem Solving Book
Author : Charles Conn,Robert McLean
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Release : 2019-03-04
ISBN : 1119553040
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Complex problem solving is the core skill for 21st Century Teams Complex problem solving is at the very top of the list of essential skills for career progression in the modern world. But how problem solving is taught in our schools, universities, businesses and organizations comes up short. In Bulletproof Problem Solving: The One Skill That Changes Everything you’ll learn the seven-step systematic approach to creative problem solving developed in top consulting firms that will work in any field or industry, turning you into a highly sought-after bulletproof problem solver who can tackle challenges that others balk at. The problem-solving technique outlined in this book is based on a highly visual, logic-tree method that can be applied to everything from everyday decisions to strategic issues in business to global social challenges. The authors, with decades of experience at McKinsey and Company, provide 30 detailed, real-world examples, so you can see exactly how the technique works in action. With this bulletproof approach to defining, unpacking, understanding, and ultimately solving problems, you’ll have a personal superpower for developing compelling solutions in your workplace. Discover the time-tested 7-step technique to problem solving that top consulting professionals employ Learn how a simple visual system can help you break down and understand the component parts of even the most complex problems Build team brainstorming techniques that fight cognitive bias, streamline workplanning, and speed solutions Know when and how to employ modern analytic tools and techniques from machine learning to game theory Learn how to structure and communicate your findings to convince audiences and compel action The secrets revealed in Bulletproof Problem Solving will transform the way you approach problems and take you to the next level of business and personal success.

Engaging Eager and Reluctant Learners

Engaging Eager and Reluctant Learners Book
Author : Dennis Adams,Mary Hamm
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Release : 2017-03-08
ISBN : 1475834470
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This book will help educators design STEM programs and lessons that foster teamwork and thinking while getting students actively involved in their own learning. There are many practical ideas and lesson plans that will help teachers reach both eager and reluctant learners. The suggestions for STEM curriculum and instruction are research based and standards driven. This book looks at collaborative learning, differentiation, and diversity all the while building instruction in the STEM subjects and good hands-on materials. This is done in a way that is designed to help every student feel successful and part of the class as a whole. It shows a deep respect for the unique relationship between teachers and their students as they try to navigate their way into the future. Suggestions are designed to help learners question, analyze, interpret, problem solve, and discover. The STEM subjects of science, technology, engineering, and math are essential to understanding the world of today and the world of tomorrow. The authors view is that it takes more than innovation alone; for innovation to be useful, products of the imagination must be arranged in ways that allow them to be used to solve real world problems.

Disaster Forensics

Disaster Forensics Book
Author : Anthony J. Masys
Publisher : Springer
Release : 2016-09-03
ISBN : 3319418491
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This book aims to uncover the root causes of natural and man-made disasters by going beyond the typical reports and case studies conducted post-disaster. It opens the black box of disasters by presenting ‘forensic analysis approaches’ to disasters, thereby revealing the complex causality that characterizes them and explaining how and why hazards do, or do not, become disasters. This yields ‘systemic’ strategies for managing disasters. Recently the global threat landscape has seen the emergence of high impact, low probability events. Events like Hurricane Katrina, the Great Japan Earthquake and tsunami, Hurricane Sandy, Super Typhoon Haiyan, global terrorist activities have become the new norm. Extreme events challenge our understanding regarding the interdependencies and complexity of the disaster aetiology and are often referred to as Black Swans. Between 2002 and 2011, there were 4130 disasters recorded that resulted from natural hazards around the world. In these, 1,117,527 people perished and a minimum of US$1,195 billion in losses were reported. In the year 2011 alone, 302 disasters claimed 29,782 lives; affected 206 million people and inflicted damages worth a minimum of estimated US$366 billion.

Apocalypse without God

Apocalypse without God Book
Author : Ben Jones
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Release : 2022-04-30
ISBN : 1316517055
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Apocalypse, it seems, is everywhere. Preachers with vast followings proclaim the world's end. Apocalyptic fears grip even the non-religious amid climate change, pandemics, and threats of nuclear war. But as these ideas pervade popular discourse, grasping their logic remains elusive. Ben Jones argues that we can gain insight into apocalyptic thought through secular thinkers. He starts with a puzzle: Why would secular thinkers draw on Christian apocalyptic beliefs - often dismissed as bizarre -to interpret politics? The apocalyptic tradition proves appealing in part because it theorizes a special relation between crisis and utopia. Apocalyptic thought points to crisis as the vehicle to bring the impossible within reach, thus offering resources for navigating challenges in ideal theory, which tries to imagine the best and most just society. By examining apocalyptic thought's appeal and risks, this Open Access study arrives at new insights on the limits of ideal theory and utopian hope.

Unlocking Creativity

Unlocking Creativity Book
Author : Michael A. Roberto
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Release : 2019-01-07
ISBN : 111954579X
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Tear down the obstacles to creative innovation in your organization Unlocking Creativity is an exploration of the creative process and how organizations can clear the way for innovation. In many organizations, creative individuals face stubborn resistance to new ideas. Managers and executives oftentimes reject innovation and unconventional approaches due to misplaced allegiance to the status quo. Questioning established practices or challenging prevailing sentiments is frequently met with stiff resistance. In this climate of stifled creativity and inflexible adherence to conventional wisdom, potentially game-changing ideas are dismissed outright. Senior leaders claim to value creativity, yet often lack the knowledge to provide a creative framework. Unlocking Creativity offers effective methods and real-world examples of how the most successful organizations create cultures of innovation and experimentation. Best-selling author and scholar Michael Roberto presents a thorough investigation of organizational obstacles to creative thought. Highly relevant to the growth crises many enterprises face in today’s economic landscape, this book examines how to break barriers to spark creativity and foster new ideas. This insightful and informative work allows business executives, senior managers, and organization leaders to: Recognize the six organizational mindsets that impede creativity and innovation Learn how to tear down the barriers that obstruct the creative process Create an environment that allows talented people to thrive Encourage creative collaboration in teams throughout an organization Leaders do not have to conceive innovative ideas, but rather open the path for curious and creative employees within their organization. Unlocking Creativity: How to Solve Any Problem and Make the Best Decisions aids organizations in removing obstacles to the creative process and helps to form an atmosphere of imagination and innovation.

Who Wins in a Digital World

Who Wins in a Digital World  Book
Author : MIT Sloan Management Review
Publisher : MIT Press
Release : 2019-03-05
ISBN : 0262536749
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

How organizations can adapt to a constantly changing business environment by being flexible but focused, embracing change, and moving fast. In the new digital world, the unknowns are never-ending. Our ability to embrace the demands of change has become a prerequisite for success. It's not easy. We don't work the way we did last year. Next year, it will all change again. If an organization doesn't embrace the realities of change, it will be under siege from those that do. Who Wins in a Digital World explains how organizations can adapt to a constantly changing business environment by being flexible but focused, embracing change in all its messiness, and moving fast. In articles that originally appeared in MIT Sloan Management Review, experts from business and academia discuss digital adaptability, explaining how both organizations and individuals need the ability to excel in what their roles will become as technology and their competitive ecosystem evolve. They highlight strategies and mindsets that can foster change, including boldness in the face of digitization, a focus on collaboration, and an artificial intelligence game plan. And they explore the need for speed, with one contributor declaring: “Implement first, ask questions later (or not at all).” Once an organization accepts the fact that technological change is ongoing and inevitable, it becomes more about opportunity and less about challenge. This book shows that change can be stimulating, exhilarating, and something to be welcomed. Contributors Stephen J. Andriole, Jacques Bughin, Thomas H. Davenport, Nathan Furr, Lynn J. Good, David Kiron, Edward E. Lawler III, Vikram Mahidhar, Paul Michelman, Jeanne Ross, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Andrew Shipilov, Charles Sull, Donald Sull, Philip E. Tetlock, Stefano Turconi, Nicolas van Zeebroeck, Peter Weill, Thomas Williams, Stephanie L. Woerner, Christopher G. Worley, James Yoder

The Best Writing on Mathematics 2017

The Best Writing on Mathematics 2017 Book
Author : Mircea Pitici
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Release : 2017-10-31
ISBN : 1400888557
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

The year's finest mathematics writing from around the world This annual anthology brings together the year’s finest mathematics writing from around the world. Featuring promising new voices alongside some of the foremost names in the field, The Best Writing on Mathematics 2017 makes available to a wide audience many articles not easily found anywhere else—and you don’t need to be a mathematician to enjoy them. These writings offer surprising insights into the nature, meaning, and practice of mathematics today. They delve into the history, philosophy, teaching, and everyday occurrences of math, and take readers behind the scenes of today’s hottest mathematical debates. Here Evelyn Lamb describes the excitement of searching for incomprehensibly large prime numbers, Jeremy Gray speculates about who would have won math’s highest prize—the Fields Medal—in the nineteenth century, and Philip Davis looks at mathematical results and artifacts from a business and marketing viewpoint. In other essays, Noson Yanofsky explores the inherent limits of knowledge in mathematical thinking, Jo Boaler and Lang Chen reveal why finger-counting enhances children’s receptivity to mathematical ideas, and Carlo Séquin and Raymond Shiau attempt to discover how the Renaissance painter Fra Luca Pacioli managed to convincingly depict his famous rhombicuboctahedron, a twenty-six-sided Archimedean solid. And there’s much, much more. In addition to presenting the year’s most memorable writings on mathematics, this must-have anthology includes a bibliography of other notable writings and an introduction by the editor, Mircea Pitici. This book belongs on the shelf of anyone interested in where math has taken us—and where it is headed.

Expert Political Judgment

Expert Political Judgment Book
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Release : 2017-08-29
ISBN : 0691175977
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Safeguarding the Bioeconomy

Safeguarding the Bioeconomy Book
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences,Health and Medicine Division,Policy and Global Affairs,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Forum on Cyber Resilience,Board on Health Sciences Policy,Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy,Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources,Board on Life Sciences,Committee on Safeguarding the Bioeconomy: Finding Strategies for Understanding, Evaluating, and Protecting the Bioeconomy While Sustaining Innovation and Growth
Publisher : National Academies Press
Release : 2020-05-01
ISBN : 0309495679
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Research and innovation in the life sciences is driving rapid growth in agriculture, biomedical science, information science and computing, energy, and other sectors of the U.S. economy. This economic activity, conceptually referred to as the bioeconomy, presents many opportunities to create jobs, improve the quality of life, and continue to drive economic growth. While the United States has been a leader in advancements in the biological sciences, other countries are also actively investing in and expanding their capabilities in this area. Maintaining competitiveness in the bioeconomy is key to maintaining the economic health and security of the United States and other nations. Safeguarding the Bioeconomy evaluates preexisting and potential approaches for assessing the value of the bioeconomy and identifies intangible assets not sufficiently captured or that are missing from U.S. assessments. This study considers strategies for safeguarding and sustaining the economic activity driven by research and innovation in the life sciences. It also presents ideas for horizon scanning mechanisms to identify new technologies, markets, and data sources that have the potential to drive future development of the bioeconomy.

Noise

Noise Book
Author : Daniel Kahneman,Olivier Sibony,Cass R. Sunstein
Publisher : Hachette UK
Release : 2021-05-18
ISBN : 031645138X
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.

Leading Intelligence Analysis

Leading Intelligence Analysis Book
Author : Bruce E. Pease
Publisher : CQ Press
Release : 2019-01-03
ISBN : 1506397123
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

"Bruce Pease has written a much needed book on a long ignored topic: how does one lead analysts? Most analysis is at some level a group activity, whether in government or the private sector. Much has been written about good versus bad analysis and how to train analysts, but Pease, himself a veteran senior CIA analyst and manager, focuses on what the leaders of these analysts need to know and should be thinking about. Leadership matters in analysis as in all other endeavors, and Pease offers invaluable guidance on how to lead effectively. This book is a must for anyone in a leadership role in an analytic enterprise." —Mark M. Lowenthal, PhD, Intelligence & Security Academy, LLC Written by an experienced professional who has led Navy Intelligence and CIA analysts in high-stakes situations, Leading Intelligence Analysis introduces the fundamental managerial skills and practical tools needed to lead analysis projects conducted by individuals and teams. Author Bruce Pease provides insights into key questions such as What kind of environment draws out a team’s best work? What brings out their creativity? When does pressure bring out their best insights? When does pressure sap their intellectual energy? and What kind of team builds new knowledge rather than engaging in group-think? This book draws on the author’s perspective from decades of leading intelligence analysts on critical issues, including war in the Middle East, terrorism after 9/11, and nuclear threats. Key Features Practical advice helps leaders of analytic units nurture insight with the understanding that it can be enabled but not manufactured. Discussion of a range of different types of analysis serves leaders conducting research in areas including data analysis, security analysis, geopolitical analysis, threat warning, counterterrorism, and business climate analysis. Practical advice on judging IT tools guides leaders to the correct data science approach for various situations.

The Art of Data Analysis Non Technical Skills for Data Analysts

The Art of Data Analysis  Non Technical Skills for Data Analysts Book
Author : Alberto Scappini
Publisher : Alberto Scappini
Release : 2020-08-16
ISBN : 1702688526
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Would you like to greatly improve your data analysis capabilities by learning the most critical non-technical skills? Do you want to be more astute and well-rounded when applying your skills as a data analyst and achieve better results? If you answered “yes” to any of these questions, keep reading ….. There is an immense focus being placed on data analysis by businesses these days. It is indispensable and helps boil down decision-making to a science. This in turn lets organizations streamline their processes, increase their efficiency, and reduce their operating costs. For this reason, data analysts are in high demand. While technical skills are needed for the job, a salient focus is placed on what soft skills do the incumbent data analysts possess. A lot of data analysts do not adequately acquire these soft skills and therefore fail to realize their full potential. The most impactful work that a highly successful data analyst does comprises non-technical skills. Some crucial skills among these include being able to construct the problem, understand the business context, ask the right questions, find creative solutions, creating visualizations, and presenting the findings. This indispensable book will guide you through these absolutely necessary soft skills that you need in order to excel at your work as a valuable data analyst. Here’s a preview of this fantastic book, and what else you’ll learn: ● The critical contribution of non-technical skills in data analysis ● Using creativity to enable solving more complex problems quickly ● Understanding the business to address the specific needs of enterprises ● Thinking strategically to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of your work ● Knowing how the human mind works to discover the abilities and limitations of various analytical models ● Using alternative techniques compared to statistical analysis such as qualitative data analysis, analytics, heuristics, etc., to gain a deeper perspective ● Acquiring negotiating skills to better deal with external and internal stakeholders ● Learning to better communicate your data analysis insights ● Being a better writer to be able to better express yourself ….. And much more! As a key bonus, included in this book are chapters that extensively elaborate on designing your findings by means of visualizations and public speaking in order to convincingly present your finding to a group of influential people and executives. The author understands your peculiar concerns and has therefore written this book in a clear and concise manner. The work is also thorough, relevant, and up-to-date. You are not required to be an experienced analyst to read this book. However, you do need to have a zeal for the subject and the passion for improving the outcome of your work. So, if you want to dramatically improve as a data analyst and aspire to reach the zenith of your field, click the “Add to Cart” button, and let’s get started!

Resolving Business Disputes

Resolving Business Disputes Book
Author : Stephen Bate
Publisher : Spiramus Press Ltd
Release : 2020-05-18
ISBN : 1913507017
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Resolving Business Disputes will give company directors, business executives and other commercial decision-makers a unique and essential insight into how to resolve business disputes and to reach the best outcomes by making effective decisions. The book is also aimed at dispute resolution lawyers, litigation funders and insurers. It is a guide, explaining the unique choices created by commercial conflict, basic workings of the law about disputes, the main avenues of dispute resolution, the forecasting of litigation outcomes for cases going to court, the funding of legal cases, the management of the risk involved, the creation of a dispute strategy, how to make the best use of legal advice and how to negotiate effectively. Finally, by using objective criteria the guide explains how to decide whether to end a dispute by negotiated settlement or by taking a case all the way to a court judgment or other conclusion. In view of the profound implications of Covid-19 for trade and commerce, the book also contains an introduction to key issues raised by the pandemic for the resolution of contract disputes.

Risky Business

Risky Business Book
Author : Linda Henman
Publisher : CRC Press
Release : 2021-05-13
ISBN : 1000382834
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

To position an organization for growth, you cannot shy away from disruptive, high-stakes, pivotal decisions about the future. So why DO you? Why do so many smart leaders cringe when they face disruption? Most people think of disruption as negative while some leaders make disruption their goal. Organizational Psychologist Dr. Linda Henman considers both approaches preventable and costly mistakes. The surprising truth about improving anything you do—personally, professionally, publicly, or privately—lies at the intersection of your ability to think abstractly and your willingness to take prudent risks. Drawing on a rich trove of original, cutting-edge research and four decades’ worth of consulting, Henman knows what it takes to succeed in the C-suite. She dispels myths by presenting a clear and compelling summary of what she has observed—and in many cases, helped to create. Her in-the-trenches experiences spurred her to arrive at this conclusion: Myths about leadership have blinded us to what leaders really do. Many leaders believe in the concept of creative disruption but remain skeptical about trusting it. Jam-packed with big ideas, Risky Business arrives just in time—a rare book that will transform the way you think about risk, change the way you view disruption, and help you understand what you must do to think strategically, to grow dramatically, and to do it quickly. Inspiring and revelatory, filled with story-driven narratives and practical takeaways, Risky Business brings together decades of counterintuitive research to shed light on how you can effect change.

Risk Governance

Risk Governance Book
Author : Elizabeth Sheedy
Publisher : Routledge
Release : 2021-06-10
ISBN : 100039560X
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Biases, blind spots and bonuses (or incentives more broadly) have led to numerous risk management disasters. Risk governance is a potential solution to these problems yet is not always as effective as we would like it to be. One reason for that is the current dearth of risk governance expertise. This book seeks to address this issue, providing: Understanding of the fundamental forces that cause disasters: the biases, blind spots and bonuses. This understanding is drawn from the disciplines of economics/finance and psychology; Explanation of the structures of risk governance and common challenges experienced in their use e.g. board risk committee, risk/compliance function, assurance function, risk appetite statement, risk disclosures; Thorough investigation of risk culture and its importance in risk governance, including the assessment of risk culture; Understanding of the mechanisms of executive compensation and how they link to risk management – one of the most difficult challenges confronting both risk and remuneration committees; Explanation of the risk management process (based on international standards ISO31000), including practical guidance on risk communication, analysis and treatment; Guidance on the management of strategic risk, emphasising the importance of scenario analysis; Application of these principles to cyber risk, climate risk – two pervasive risks affecting almost every organisation; Numerous case studies and examples drawn from various industries around the world; and Discussion of what has been learned about risk governance from the COVID-19 experience. The book is an essential guide for postgraduate students; participants in professional education programs in governance and risk management; directors; senior executives; risk, compliance and assurance professionals as well as conduct and prudential regulators worldwide.

How to Make the World Add Up

How to Make the World Add Up Book
Author : Tim Harford
Publisher : Hachette UK
Release : 2020-09-17
ISBN : 1408712229
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

The Sunday Times Bestseller 'Tim Harford is one of my favourite writers in the world. His storytelling is gripping but never overdone, his intellectual honesty is rare and inspiring, and his ability to make complex things simple - but not simplistic - is exceptional. How to Make the World Add Up is another one of his gems. If you're looking for an addictive pageturner that will make you smarter, this is your book' Rutger Bregman, author of Humankind 'Tim Harford could well be Britain's Malcolm Gladwell' Alex Bellos, author of Alex's Adventures in Numberland 'If you aren't in love with stats before reading this book, you will be by the time you're done. Powerful, persuasive, and in these truth-defying times, indispensable' Caroline Criado Perez, author of Invisible Women In How to Make the World Add Up, Tim Harford draws on his experience as both an economist and presenter of the BBC's radio show 'More or Less' to take us deep into the world of disinformation and obfuscation, bad research and misplaced motivation to find those priceless jewels of data and analysis that make communicating with numbers so rewarding. Through vivid storytelling he reveals how we can evaluate the claims that surround us with confidence, curiosity and a healthy level of scepticism. It is a must-read for anyone who cares about understanding the world around them. 'Tim Harford is our most likeable champion of reason and rigour . . . clear, clever and always highly readable' The Times, Books of the Year 'Fascinating and enjoyable' Bill Bryson 'Now more than ever we need a book like this' Stephen Fry 'Wise, humane and, above all, illuminating. Nobody is better on statistics and numbers - and how to make sense of them' Matthew Syed 'One of the most wonderful collections of stories that I have read in a long time . . . fascinating.' Steven Levitt, co-author of Freakonomics 'Wise and useful . . . such a delight' Financial Times 'What should we do when someone makes a claim that they say is based on data? This wise book, distilled from years of experience, gives us the ten commandments, from first examining our feelings, to finally having the humility to admit we may be wrong. Priceless' Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter