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Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction

Sub seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Book
Author : Andrew Robertson,Frederic Vitart
Publisher : Elsevier
Release : 2018-10-19
ISBN : 012811715X
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Next Generation Earth System Prediction Book
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting
Publisher : National Academies Press
Release : 2016-08-22
ISBN : 0309388805
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Toward Better Subseasonal to seasonal Prediction Physics oriented Model Evaluation and Predictability of Tropical Cyclones

Toward Better Subseasonal to seasonal Prediction  Physics oriented Model Evaluation and Predictability of Tropical Cyclones Book
Author : Weiwei Li
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2017
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Toward Better Subseasonal to seasonal Prediction Physics oriented Model Evaluation and Predictability of Tropical Cyclones book written by Weiwei Li, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Sub seasonal Forecasting Using Large Ensembles of Data driven Global Weather Prediction Models

Sub seasonal Forecasting Using Large Ensembles of Data driven Global Weather Prediction Models Book
Author : Jonathan A. Weyn-Vanhentenryck
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2020
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

The current state-of-the-art in numerical weather prediction (NWP) is to generate probabilistic forecasts using large ensembles consisting of equally-likely realizations of future weather. Such large ensembles, however, require significant computational resources. I have developed a purely data-driven weather prediction model using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) trained on globally-gridded analysis of the atmosphere. While this model only evolves a small set of key atmospheric variables and does not quite approach the performance of state-of-the-art NWP models, it has a number of desirable properties: 1) by using data remapped to a cubed sphere, our CNN model is a closed system which can be integrated forward indefinitely, 2) our model remains stable indefinitely, producing realistic atmospheric states and even a correct seasonal cycle when allowed to run freely for up to a year, and 3) our model executes extremely quickly, requiring only one tenth of a second for a 1-week forecast on a global 1.5-degree grid. Taking advantage of the efficient computation, I designed a large 320-member ensemble of CNNs using both initial-condition perturbations and stochastic model perturbations yielded by the internal randomness of training multiple CNNs. While the ensemble is under-dispersive, ensemble mean forecasts notably outperform single deterministic data-driven forecasts, but still lag the skill of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecasts. Armed with an efficient large ensemble, I then target predictions on the sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time frame, or about 2 weeks to 2 months out, where traditional NWP models struggle due to a lack of information from initial conditions and difficulty outperforming persistence forecasts of slowly-evolving earth system components such as ocean sea surface temperatures. Ensemble mean forecasts of 2-meter temperature and 850-hPa temperature from my CNN ensemble clearly outperform persistence forecasts across the S2S time frame. Evaluating full ensemble probabilistic forecasts using the continuous ranked probability score and the ranked proba- bility skill score, I demonstrate that my CNN ensemble provides nearly universal useful S2S skill relative to persistence and climatology, notably over most land masses instead of just over oceans. My ensemble even compares well with the ECMWF S2S ensemble, matching or exceeding the latter at forecast lead times of weeks 5-6, and particularly excels during the boreal spring and summer months, where the ECMWF ensemble is weakest. While my CNN ensemble shows great promise as an S2S forecasting tool, many opportunities remain to further improve it, especially for its predictions of long-term climate variability including the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

Sub seasonal Predictions

Sub seasonal Predictions Book
Author : F. Vitart,G. Balsamo,R. Buizza,L. Ferranti,S. Keeley,L. Magnusson,F. Molenti,A. Weisheimer,European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2014
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Sub seasonal Predictions book written by F. Vitart,G. Balsamo,R. Buizza,L. Ferranti,S. Keeley,L. Magnusson,F. Molenti,A. Weisheimer,European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability Book
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability
Publisher : National Academies Press
Release : 2010-10-08
ISBN : 030915183X
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Towards Seasonal Prediction

Towards Seasonal Prediction Book
Author : Raphael H. Köhler
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2020
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Stratospheric variability is one of the main potential sources for sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability in mid-latitudes in winter. Stratospheric pathways play an important role for long-range teleconnections between tropical phenomena, such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the mid-latitudes on the one hand, and linkages between Arctic climate change and the mid-latitudes on the other hand. In order to move forward in the field of extratropical seasonal predictions, it is essential that an atmospheric model is able to realistically simulate the stratospheric circulation and variability. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) configuration of the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic atmosphere model ICON is currently being used by the German Meteorological Service for the regular weather forecast, and is intended to produce seasonal predictions in future. This thesis represents the first extensive evaluation of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric winter circulation in ICON-NWP by analysing a ...

Subseasonal to Seasonal Temperature Prediction Skill Over the California Region from Global Dynamical Forecasts

Subseasonal to Seasonal Temperature Prediction Skill Over the California Region from Global Dynamical Forecasts Book
Author : Zhenhai Zhang,Daniel R. Cayan,David W. Pierce,Scripps Institution of Oceanography
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2018
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Subseasonal to Seasonal Temperature Prediction Skill Over the California Region from Global Dynamical Forecasts book written by Zhenhai Zhang,Daniel R. Cayan,David W. Pierce,Scripps Institution of Oceanography, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Modulation of the MJO Related Teleconnections by the QBO and the Prediction Skill of the NAO in S2S Models

Modulation of the MJO Related Teleconnections by the QBO and the Prediction Skill of the NAO in S2S Models Book
Author : Pei-Ning Feng
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2021
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

"The weather and climate in the extratropics are profoundly influenced by the dominant climate variabilities occurring over a wide range of time scales from days to weeks, months, years and even longer. At the same time, the teleconnection, which is often referred to as the large-scale modes of the low-frequency variability and sometimes driven by the tropical convection, also play an important role in weather and climate forecasts. The prominent mode of climate variability over the North Atlantic basin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), has long been investigated and regarded as an important factor for subseasonal predictions. Throughout the thesis, we analyze the observational data to clarify how tropical convection and stratospheric climate variability influence the NAO, and then assess the prediction skill and representation of the NAO in the operational models of the World Climate/Weather Research Program’s (WCRP/WWRP) Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) prediction project.The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the prominent mode of intraseasonal variability in the tropics. Certain phases of the MJO were observed to have evident connections with the NAO at a lag of about 10 days. In the observations, we find that in the extended boreal winter season, the NAO responses after the occurrences of the MJO differ in the two phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Both the positive phase of the NAO after the occurrences of the MJO phase 3 and the negative phase of the NAO after the occurrences of the MJO phase 7 during the westerly phase of the QBO (WQBO) are significantly stronger than during the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO). The modulation of the QBO on the MJO-related teleconnections might be through the modification on the extratropical basic state. During the WQBO, the anomalous westerlies in the North Pacific enhance the subtropical westerly jet and thus might be preferentially favorable for the propagation of Rossby waves from the tropics to the extratropics compared with EQBO. At the same time, the anomalous westerly wind over the polar region that is associated with a stronger polar vortex might also help the troposphere-stratosphere coupling to influence the NAO. However, the observed modulation of the MJO-NAO teleconnection by the QBO is not fully represented by the S2S models. Most S2S models capture the enhancement of the positive NAO after the occurrence of the MJO phase 3 during the WQBO, while the enhancement of the negative NAO after the occurrence of the MJO phase 7 is not well represented. During the EQBO, the representation of a significant negative NAO after the occurrence of the MJO phase 7 can be simulated by a few models, but the positive NAO after the occurrence of the MJO phase 3 is almost not seen in most models.We also assess the prediction skill of the NAO in the S2S models. In particular, we look at the forecasts initiated with various initial conditions during the reforecast period of each model: 1) the positive and negative phases of the NAO, 2) the two phases of the QBO, and 3) the amplitude and the phases of the MJO. The forecasts initiated with a negative NAO tend to have a higher NAO forecast skill than those starting from a positive NAO. On the other hand, NAO forecasts did not show a significant difference in skill depending on which of the two phases of the QBO of the winter season it was initiated. Similarly, the prediction skills of the NAO also did not depend on whether it was initiated during an active or inactive MJO event when the phase of the MJO is not taken into account. However, among the eight phases, the MJO phases 3-5 and phases 7-1 lead to a better prediction skill of the NAO than other phases and the inactive MJO-initiated forecasts. From the assessments, we also find that most operational models with relatively higher model top represent a higher sensitivity to the selected initial conditions in general than the models with a lower model top"--

Seasonal Climate Forecasting and Managing Risk

Seasonal Climate  Forecasting and Managing Risk Book
Author : Alberto Troccoli,Mike Harrison,David L.T. Anderson,Simon J. Mason
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Release : 2008-01-29
ISBN : 1402069928
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Originally formed around a set of lectures presented at a NATO Advanced Study Institute (ASI), this book has grown to become organised and presented rather more as a textbook than as a standard "collection of proceedings". This therefore is the first unified reference ‘textbook’ in seasonal to interannual climate predictions and their practical uses. Written by some of the world’s leading experts, the book covers a rapidly-developing science of prime social concern.

Seasonal to Decadal Prediction of Marine Ecosystems Opportunities Approaches and Applications

Seasonal to Decadal Prediction of Marine Ecosystems  Opportunities  Approaches  and Applications Book
Author : Mark R. Payne,Alistair J. Hobday,Brian R. MacKenzie,Desiree Tommasi
Publisher : Frontiers Media SA
Release : 2019-06-28
ISBN : 2889458814
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Tremendous advances in oceanographic observing and modeling systems over the last decade have led to unprecedented developments in the nature of information available to marine science. While improvements in observational technologies and networks have garnered much attention, remarkable developments in forecasting the ocean have received much less focus. Exploiting this new predictive skill to improve scientific understanding, generate advice and aid in the management of marine resources, is emerging as one of the new challenges of marine science. Translating predictions of the physical environment into biological outcomes, however, is not straightforward. Fisheries scientists, for example, have been trying to understand the links between physics and biology, and generate predictions of variables such as recruitment, for close to a century, with limited success. Nevertheless, spatial distributions and the timing of key events, which have received less focus, are often tightly linked to the physical environment and may have management-relevant applications. The first-such forecasts based on this skill are now starting to emerge. This Frontiers in Marine Science Research Topic provides a snapshot of the state-of-the-art in Marine Ecological Prediction. It covers the opportunities for developing such forecasts, technical approaches that could be employed, and examples where the technology is already being applied. This body of work therefore marks an important milestone on the route to developing this new and exciting field of marine science.

The Asian Summer Monsoon

The Asian Summer Monsoon Book
Author : Yunyun Liu,Ping Liang,Ying Sun
Publisher : Elsevier
Release : 2019-07-13
ISBN : 0128165316
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

The Asian Summer Monsoon: Characteristics, Variability, Teleconnections and Projection focuses on the connections between the Indian Summer and East Asian Summer Monsoons, also including the South China Sea Summer Monsoon. While these systems have profound differences, their interactions have significant impacts on the climatic regimes in the region and throughout the world. In summer, the ASM engine pumps moisture transported across thousands of miles from the Indian and Pacific Oceans to the monsoon regions, producing heavy rains over south and east Asia and its adjacent marginal seas. This book reviews the different subsystems and their impact, providing guidance to enhance prediction models. Synthesizes the connections between the East Asian Summer Monsoon, the Indian Summer Monsoon and the Asian Summer Monsoon system Includes subsections on holistic characteristics, sub-seasonal and interannual variability, teleconnection patterns, and projections of future change Connects current theory and practice on Asian Monsoon forecasting, providing researchers with new skills and information to use in climate and weather forecasting

Operational Weather Forecasting

Operational Weather Forecasting Book
Author : Peter Michael Inness,Steve Dorling
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Release : 2012-12-06
ISBN : 1118447638
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-endprocess of forecast production, and bringing together a descriptionof all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; withplenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues andexamples of current, state-of-the-art practices. Operational Weather Forecasting covers the whole processof forecast production, from understanding the nature of theforecasting problem, gathering the observational data with which toinitialise and verify forecasts, designing and building a model (ormodels) to advance those initial conditions forwards in time andthen interpreting the model output and putting it into a form whichis relevant to customers of weather forecasts. Included is thegeneration of forecasts on the monthly-to-seasonal timescales,often excluded in text-books despite this type of forecastinghaving been undertaken for several years. This is a rapidly developing field, with a lot of variations inpractices between different forecasting centres. Thus theauthors have tried to be as generic as possible when describingaspects of numerical model design and formulation. Despitethe reliance on NWP, the human forecaster still has a big part toplay in producing weather forecasts and this is described, alongwith the issue of forecast verification – how forecastcentres measure their own performance and improve upon it. Advanced undergraduates and postgraduate students will use thisbook to understand how the theory comes together in the day-to-dayapplications of weather forecast production. In addition,professional weather forecasting practitioners, professional usersof weather forecasts and trainers will all find this new member ofthe RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate series avaluable tool. Provides an end-to-end description of the weather forecastingprocess Clearly structured and pitched at an accessible level, the bookdiscusses the practical choices that operational forecastingcentres have to make in terms of what numerical models they use andwhen they are run. Takes a very practical approach, using real life case-studiesto contextualize information Discusses the latest advances in the area, including ensemblemethods, monthly to seasonal range prediction and use of‘nowcasting’ tools such as radar and satelliteimagery Full colour throughout Written by a highly respected team of authors with experiencein both academia and practice. Part of the RMetS book series ‘Advancing Weather andClimate’

Scientific Assessment of the Prospects for Seasonal Forecasting

Scientific Assessment of the Prospects for Seasonal Forecasting Book
Author : T. N. Palmer,David L. T. Anderson
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 1993
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Scientific Assessment of the Prospects for Seasonal Forecasting book written by T. N. Palmer,David L. T. Anderson, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Use of Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Prediction in Operational Agriculture

Use of Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Prediction in Operational Agriculture Book
Author : M. Harrison,WMO. Commission for Agricultural Meteorology
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2007
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Use of Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Prediction in Operational Agriculture book written by M. Harrison,WMO. Commission for Agricultural Meteorology, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

May the Odds be with You

May the Odds be with You Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 1996
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download May the Odds be with You book written by , available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Use of Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Prediction in Operational Agriculture

Use of Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Prediction in Operational Agriculture Book
Author : CAgM Working Group
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2007
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Use of Seasonal Forecasts and Climate Prediction in Operational Agriculture book written by CAgM Working Group, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Error Estimation of an Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model

Error Estimation of an Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model Book
Author : National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Release : 2018-05-31
ISBN : 9781720509264
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.Shen, Samue