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Statistical Postprocessing Of Ensemble Forecasts

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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts Book
Author : Stéphane Vannitsem,Daniel S. Wilks,Jakob Messner
Publisher : Elsevier
Release : 2018-05-17
ISBN : 012812248X
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts Book
Author : Stéphane Vannitsem,Jakob Messner,Daniel S. Wilks
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2018-06
ISBN : 9780128123720
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together contributed chapters by international subject-matter experts, describing the current state-of-the-art in statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts and illustrating the use of these methods in several important applications, including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecasts as an extension of the use of statistical corrections and their use for post-processing traditional deterministic forecasts.

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences Book
Author : Daniel S. Wilks
Publisher : Academic Press
Release : 2011-07-04
ISBN : 0123850231
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Third Edition, explains the latest statistical methods used to describe, analyze, test, and forecast atmospheric data. This revised and expanded text is intended to help students understand and communicate what their data sets have to say, or to make sense of the scientific literature in meteorology, climatology, and related disciplines. In this new edition, what was a single chapter on multivariate statistics has been expanded to a full six chapters on this important topic. Other chapters have also been revised and cover exploratory data analysis, probability distributions, hypothesis testing, statistical weather forecasting, forecast verification, and time series analysis. There is now an expanded treatment of resampling tests and key analysis techniques, an updated discussion on ensemble forecasting, and a detailed chapter on forecast verification. In addition, the book includes new sections on maximum likelihood and on statistical simulation and contains current references to original research. Students will benefit from pedagogical features including worked examples, end-of-chapter exercises with separate solutions, and numerous illustrations and equations. This book will be of interest to researchers and students in the atmospheric sciences, including meteorology, climatology, and other geophysical disciplines. Accessible presentation and explanation of techniques for atmospheric data summarization, analysis, testing and forecasting Many worked examples End-of-chapter exercises, with answers provided

Advanced Statistical Post processing of Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Advanced Statistical Post processing of Ensemble Weather Forecasts Book
Author : S. Allen
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2021
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Advanced Statistical Post processing of Ensemble Weather Forecasts book written by S. Allen, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting

Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting Book
Author : Qingyun Duan,Florian Pappenberger,Jutta Thielen,Hannah L. Cloke,John Schaake
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2022-08-14
ISBN : 9783642404573
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

" . . . This handbook offers unrivalled coverage of today's cutting-edge techniques in flood and weather prediction. The ensemble technique, which generates multiple forecasts from differing initial parameters, is a high-profile research target with the potential to enhance the accuracy of forecasting and reduce the loss of life and damage to property caused by riverine floods, violent weather systems, and longer-term weather problems such as droughts" -- publisher.

Observation Theory and Modeling of Atmospheric Variability

Observation  Theory and Modeling of Atmospheric Variability Book
Author : Xun Zhu
Publisher : World Scientific
Release : 2004
ISBN : 9789812387042
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This book contains tutorial and review articles as well as specific research letters that cover a wide range of topics: (1) dynamics of atmospheric variability from both basic theory and data analysis, (2) physical and mathematical problems in climate modeling and numerical weather prediction, (3) theories of atmospheric radiative transfer and their applications in satellite remote sensing, and (4) mathematical and statistical methods. The book can be used by undergraduates or graduate students majoring in atmospheric sciences, as an introduction to various research areas; and by researchers and educators, as a general review or quick reference in their fields of interest.

Operational Weather Forecasting

Operational Weather Forecasting Book
Author : Peter Michael Inness,Steve Dorling
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Release : 2012-12-06
ISBN : 1118447638
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This book offers a complete primer, covering the end-to-endprocess of forecast production, and bringing together a descriptionof all the relevant aspects together in a single volume; withplenty of explanation of some of the more complex issues andexamples of current, state-of-the-art practices. Operational Weather Forecasting covers the whole processof forecast production, from understanding the nature of theforecasting problem, gathering the observational data with which toinitialise and verify forecasts, designing and building a model (ormodels) to advance those initial conditions forwards in time andthen interpreting the model output and putting it into a form whichis relevant to customers of weather forecasts. Included is thegeneration of forecasts on the monthly-to-seasonal timescales,often excluded in text-books despite this type of forecastinghaving been undertaken for several years. This is a rapidly developing field, with a lot of variations inpractices between different forecasting centres. Thus theauthors have tried to be as generic as possible when describingaspects of numerical model design and formulation. Despitethe reliance on NWP, the human forecaster still has a big part toplay in producing weather forecasts and this is described, alongwith the issue of forecast verification – how forecastcentres measure their own performance and improve upon it. Advanced undergraduates and postgraduate students will use thisbook to understand how the theory comes together in the day-to-dayapplications of weather forecast production. In addition,professional weather forecasting practitioners, professional usersof weather forecasts and trainers will all find this new member ofthe RMetS Advancing Weather and Climate series avaluable tool. Provides an end-to-end description of the weather forecastingprocess Clearly structured and pitched at an accessible level, the bookdiscusses the practical choices that operational forecastingcentres have to make in terms of what numerical models they use andwhen they are run. Takes a very practical approach, using real life case-studiesto contextualize information Discusses the latest advances in the area, including ensemblemethods, monthly to seasonal range prediction and use of‘nowcasting’ tools such as radar and satelliteimagery Full colour throughout Written by a highly respected team of authors with experiencein both academia and practice. Part of the RMetS book series ‘Advancing Weather andClimate’

Hydraulic and Civil Engineering Technology VI

Hydraulic and Civil Engineering Technology VI Book
Author : M. Yang,J.C.G. Lanzinha,X. Bao
Publisher : IOS Press
Release : 2021-11-09
ISBN : 1643682350
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

New technologies, such as improved testing and physical modeling methods, together with numerical studies and other novel techniques, have led to many developments in the fields of hydraulic and civil engineering in recent years. This book presents proceedings from HCET 2021, the 6th International Technical Conference on Frontiers of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering Technology, held in Sanya, China, on 28 and 29 August 2021. The conference highlighted the latest advances, innovations and applications in the fields of hydraulic and civil engineering, and served as a platform to promote and celebrate interdisciplinary study. The book contains 89 papers, selected from 178 contributions and divided into 4 sections: Modern Civil Engineering; Water and Hydraulic Engineering; Environment Engineering and Sciences; and Transdisciplinary Engineering and Technology. Topics covered involve both theoretical and practical knowledge and understanding, primarily in the areas of hydraulics and water resource engineering, civil engineering, environmental engineering and sciences, transportation engineering, coastal and ocean engineering and transdisciplinary engineering and technology. The book, which presents a wealth of exciting ideas that will open novel research directions and foster multidisciplinary collaboration among specialists in various fields, will be of interest to all academics, researchers, practitioners and policymakers seeking to understand and tackle civil and hydraulic engineering challenges by adopting appropriate, sustainable, solutions.

Atmospheric Modeling Data Assimilation and Predictability

Atmospheric Modeling  Data Assimilation and Predictability Book
Author : Eugenia Kalnay,Kalnay Eugenia
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Release : 2003
ISBN : 9780521796293
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This book, first published in 2002, is a graduate-level text on numerical weather prediction, including atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability.

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability Book
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability
Publisher : National Academies Press
Release : 2010-09-08
ISBN : 9780309161343
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Statistical Methods for Post processing Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Statistical Methods for Post processing Ensemble Weather Forecasts Book
Author : Robin Mark Williams
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2016
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Statistical Methods for Post processing Ensemble Weather Forecasts book written by Robin Mark Williams, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Hydrometeorology

Hydrometeorology Book
Author : Kevin Sene
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Release : 2009-12-12
ISBN : 904813403X
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This book describes recent developments in hydrometeorological forecasting techniques for a range of timescales, from short term to seasonal and longer terms. It conveniently brings together both meteorological and hydrological aspects in a single volume.

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Next Generation Earth System Prediction Book
Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Ocean Studies Board,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting
Publisher : National Academies Press
Release : 2016-08-22
ISBN : 0309388805
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction

Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction Book
Author : Thomas Tomkins Warner
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Release : 2010-12-02
ISBN : 9780521513890
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This textbook provides a comprehensive yet accessible treatment of weather and climate prediction, for graduate students, researchers and professionals. It teaches the strengths, weaknesses and best practices for the use of atmospheric models. It is ideal for the many scientists who use such models across a wide variety of applications. The book describes the different numerical methods, data assimilation, ensemble methods, predictability, land-surface modeling, climate modeling and downscaling, computational fluid-dynamics models, experimental designs in model-based research, verification methods, operational prediction, and special applications such as air-quality modeling and flood prediction. This volume will satisfy everyone who needs to know about atmospheric modeling for use in research or operations. It is ideal both as a textbook for a course on weather and climate prediction and as a reference text for researchers and professionals from a range of backgrounds: atmospheric science, meteorology, climatology, environmental science, geography, and geophysical fluid mechanics/dynamics.

Forecast Verification

Forecast Verification Book
Author : Ian T. Jolliffe,David B. Stephenson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Release : 2003-08-01
ISBN : 0470864419
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This handy reference introduces the subject of forecast verification and provides a review of the basic concepts, discussing different types of data that may be forecast. Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity (predictand), then looks at some of the relationships between economic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the key concepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification that receive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most important topics in the field that are the subject of current research or that would benefit from future research. An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life case studies An up-to-date and practical introduction to the different techniques and an examination of their strengths and weaknesses Practical advice given by some of the world?s leading forecasting experts Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and its interpretation Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical and mathematical definition of commonly used terms

Practical Meteorology

Practical Meteorology Book
Author : Roland Stull
Publisher : Sundog Publishing, LLC
Release : 2018
ISBN : 9780888652836
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

A quantitative introduction to atmospheric science for students and professionals who want to understand and apply basic meteorological concepts but who are not ready for calculus.

Climate Change and Regional Local Responses

Climate Change and Regional Local Responses Book
Author : Pallav Ray,Yuanzhi Zhang
Publisher : BoD – Books on Demand
Release : 2013-05-22
ISBN : 9535111329
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Understanding climate change requires analysis of its effects in specific contexts, and the case studies in this volume offer examples of such issues. Its chapters cover tropical cyclones in East Asia, study of a fossil in Brazils Araripe Basin and the fractal nature of band-thickness in an iron formation of Canadas Northwest Territories. One chapter examines the presence of trace elements and palynomorphs in the sediments of a tropical urban pond. Examples of technologies used include RS- GIS to map lineaments for groundwater targeting and sustainable water-resource management, the ALADIN numerical weather-prediction model used to forecast weather and use of grids in numerical weather and climate models. Finally, one chapter models sea level rises resulting from ice sheets melting.

Completing the Forecast

Completing the Forecast Book
Author : National Research Council,Division on Earth and Life Studies,Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate,Committee on Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and Climate Forecasts
Publisher : National Academies Press
Release : 2006-10-09
ISBN : 9780309180535
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.

Proceedings of the European Conference on Complex Systems 2012

Proceedings of the European Conference on Complex Systems 2012 Book
Author : Thomas Gilbert,Markus Kirkilionis,Gregoire Nicolis
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Release : 2013-08-15
ISBN : 331900395X
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

The European Conference on Complex Systems, held under the patronage of the Complex Systems Society, is an annual event that has become the leading European conference devoted to complexity science. ECCS'12, its ninth edition, took place in Brussels, during the first week of September 2012. It gathered about 650 scholars representing a wide range of topics relating to complex systems research, with emphasis on interdisciplinary approaches. More specifically, the following tracks were covered: 1. Foundations of Complex Systems 2. Complexity, Information and Computation 3. Prediction, Policy and Planning, Environment 4. Biological Complexity 5. Interacting Populations, Collective Behavior 6. Social Systems, Economics and Finance This book contains a selection of the contributions presented at the conference and its satellite meetings. Its contents reflect the extent, diversity and richness of research areas in the field, both fundamental and applied.

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences Book
Author : Daniel S. Wilks
Publisher : Elsevier
Release : 2019-06-09
ISBN : 0128165278
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Fourth Edition, continues the tradition of trying to meet the needs of students, researchers and operational practitioners. This updated edition not only includes expanded sections built upon the strengths of the prior edition, but also provides new content where there have been advances in the field, including Bayesian analysis, forecast verification and a new chapter dedicated to ensemble forecasting. Provides a strong, yet concise, introduction to applied statistics that is specific to atmospheric science Contains revised and expanded sections on nonparametric tests, test multiplicity and quality uncertainty descriptors Includes new sections on ANOVA, quantile regression, the lasso and other regularization methods, regression trees, changepoint detection, ensemble forecasting and exponential smoothing