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Statistical Postprocessing Of Ensemble Forecasts

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Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts Book
Author : Stéphane Vannitsem,Daniel S. Wilks,Jakob Messner
Publisher : Elsevier
Release : 2018-05-17
ISBN : 012812248X
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture. Consolidates, for the first time, the methodologies and applications of ensemble forecasts in one succinct place Provides real-world examples of methods used to formulate forecasts Presents the tools needed to make the best use of multiple model forecasts in a timely and efficient manner

Statistical Methods for Post processing Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Statistical Methods for Post processing Ensemble Weather Forecasts Book
Author : Robin Mark Williams
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2016
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Statistical Methods for Post processing Ensemble Weather Forecasts book written by Robin Mark Williams, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences Book
Author : Daniel S. Wilks
Publisher : Elsevier
Release : 2019-06-09
ISBN : 0128165278
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences, Fourth Edition, continues the tradition of trying to meet the needs of students, researchers and operational practitioners. This updated edition not only includes expanded sections built upon the strengths of the prior edition, but also provides new content where there have been advances in the field, including Bayesian analysis, forecast verification and a new chapter dedicated to ensemble forecasting. Provides a strong, yet concise, introduction to applied statistics that is specific to atmospheric science Contains revised and expanded sections on nonparametric tests, test multiplicity and quality uncertainty descriptors Includes new sections on ANOVA, quantile regression, the lasso and other regularization methods, regression trees, changepoint detection, ensemble forecasting and exponential smoothing

Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment

Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment Book
Author : Jan Kleissl
Publisher : Academic Press
Release : 2013-06-25
ISBN : 012397772X
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment is a vital text for solar energy professionals, addressing a critical gap in the core literature of the field. As major barriers to solar energy implementation, such as materials cost and low conversion efficiency, continue to fall, issues of intermittency and reliability have come to the fore. Scrutiny from solar project developers and their financiers on the accuracy of long-term resource projections and grid operators’ concerns about variable short-term power generation have made the field of solar forecasting and resource assessment pivotally important. This volume provides an authoritative voice on the topic, incorporating contributions from an internationally recognized group of top authors from both industry and academia, focused on providing information from underlying scientific fundamentals to practical applications and emphasizing the latest technological developments driving this discipline forward. The only reference dedicated to forecasting and assessing solar resources enables a complete understanding of the state of the art from the world’s most renowned experts. Demonstrates how to derive reliable data on solar resource availability and variability at specific locations to support accurate prediction of solar plant performance and attendant financial analysis. Provides cutting-edge information on recent advances in solar forecasting through monitoring, satellite and ground remote sensing, and numerical weather prediction.

Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction

Numerical Weather and Climate Prediction Book
Author : Thomas Tomkins Warner
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Release : 2010-12-02
ISBN : 1139494317
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This textbook provides a comprehensive yet accessible treatment of weather and climate prediction, for graduate students, researchers and professionals. It teaches the strengths, weaknesses and best practices for the use of atmospheric models. It is ideal for the many scientists who use such models across a wide variety of applications. The book describes the different numerical methods, data assimilation, ensemble methods, predictability, land-surface modeling, climate modeling and downscaling, computational fluid-dynamics models, experimental designs in model-based research, verification methods, operational prediction, and special applications such as air-quality modeling and flood prediction. This volume will satisfy everyone who needs to know about atmospheric modeling for use in research or operations. It is ideal both as a textbook for a course on weather and climate prediction and as a reference text for researchers and professionals from a range of backgrounds: atmospheric science, meteorology, climatology, environmental science, geography, and geophysical fluid mechanics/dynamics.

Monthly Weather Review

Monthly Weather Review Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2006-05
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Conference on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences

Conference on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2021-04-16
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

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Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 1999
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Science

Science Book
Author : John Michels (Journalist)
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2005
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

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Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation

Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2004
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Ensemble prediction systems typically show positive spread-error correlation, but are subject to forecast bias and underdispersion. This work proposes the use of ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), an easy to implement post-processing technique that addresses both forecast bias and underdispersion. The technique is based on multiple linear regression. The EMOS technique yields probabilistic forecasts that take the form of Gaussian predictive probability density functions (PDFs) for continuous weather variables, and can be applied to gridded model output. The EMOS predictive mean is an optimal, bias-corrected weighted average of the ensemble member forecasts, with coefficients that are constrained to be nonnegative and associated with the member model skill. The EMOS predictive mean provides a highly accurate deterministic-style forecast. The EMOS predictive variance is a linear function of the ensemble spread. Formatting the EMOS coefficients, the method of minimum CRPS estimation is introduced. The minimum CRPS estimator finds the coefficient values that optimize the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) for the training data. The EMOS technique was applied to 48-hour forecasts of sea level pressure and surface temperature over the North American Pacific Northwest. When compared to the bias-corrected ensemble, deterministic-style EMOS forecasts of sea level pressure had root-mean-square error 9% less and mean absolute error 8% less. The EMOS predictive PDFs were much better calibrated than the raw ensemble or the bias-corrected ensemble, and they were sharp in that prediction intervals were considerably shorter on average than those obtained from climatological forecasts. Perhaps surprisingly, the EMOS ensemble was frequently sharper than the raw ensemble. When compared to the bias-corrected ensemble, EMOS improved the continuous ranked probability score by 16%. It also improved the ignorance score by 3.7.

Bulletin

Bulletin Book
Author : World Meteorological Organization
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2005
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

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Journal of the American Statistical Association

Journal of the American Statistical Association Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2007
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2007
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

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Understanding Climate

Understanding Climate Book
Author : O. Thiele,R.A. Schiffer
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 1985
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Understanding Climate book written by O. Thiele,R.A. Schiffer, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Conference on Applied Climatology

Conference on Applied Climatology Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2021-04-16
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

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Short range Ensemble Forecasting Using the ETA RSM Forecast Models

Short range Ensemble Forecasting Using the ETA RSM Forecast Models Book
Author : Thomas More Hamill
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 1997
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Short-range ensemble forecasting (SREF) is a new weather prediction technique designed to address problems created by chaos, i.e., the sensitivity of numerical weather predictions to the initial condition (IC). A set of reduced-resolution forecasts started from slightly different ICs replaces a single, higher-resolution forecast. This research explored the statistical characteristics of a robust set of prototype SREFs. Most notably, the SREFs were found to be underdispersive; the forecasts resembled each other more so than the verification. This was quantified using a new ensemble verification methodology called "uniformity of verification rank." For an idealized N-member ensemble, the verification is a plausible member of the ensemble; when the combined verification and ensemble forecasts are sorted, the verification is equally likely to occur in each of the N + 1 possible ranks, i.e., a uniform rank histogram is expected. Using many sample points, the rank histograms are shown to be more highly populated at the extreme ranks. The characteristics of the rank histograms were explored for many fields, times, and under different weather conditions. Though non-uniform, the rank histograms are shown to also be useful in correcting the ensemble deficiencies and creating reliable probabilistic forecasts. This was demonstrated with precipitation forecasts, where corrected precipitation SREFs were competitive with forecasts from the National Weather Service's Model Output Statistics algorithm. However, it was determined that the improvements were due to the effects of ensemble averaging; the ensemble showed no ability to forecast the precipitation forecast skill. The lack of perturbations to the lower boundary condition was explored as one possible reason for the deficiencies. Various components of the lower boundary condition were perturbed and used as input to a short-range forecast generated from a 1-dimensional planetary boundary layer model. Significant sensitivity to soil moisture, roughness length, certain soil parameters, and snow cover was demonstrated, and a prototype perturbation methodology developed.

Journal of Hydrometeorology

Journal of Hydrometeorology Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2005
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Bonner Meteorologische Abhandlungen

Bonner Meteorologische Abhandlungen Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2005
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Scientific and Technical Review

Scientific and Technical Review Book
Author : Great Britain. Meteorological Office
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 1993
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference

Proceedings of the Western Snow Conference Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2005
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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