Ruin Probabilities

Book Description :

The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cram‚r?Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber?Shiu functions and dependence.

Book Description :

Ruin Probabilities: Smoothness, Bounds, Supermartingale Approach deals with continuous-time risk models and covers several aspects of risk theory. The first of them is the smoothness of the survival probabilities. In particular, the book provides a detailed investigation of the continuity and differentiability of the infinite-horizon and finite-horizon survival probabilities for different risk models. Next, it gives some possible applications of the results concerning the smoothness of the survival probabilities. Additionally, the book introduces the supermartingale approach, which generalizes the martingale one introduced by Gerber, to get upper exponential bounds for the infinite-horizon ruin probabilities in some generalizations of the classical risk model with risky investments. Provides new original results Detailed investigation of the continuity and differentiability of the infinite-horizon and finite-horizon survival probabilities, as well as possible applications of these results An excellent supplement to current textbooks and monographs in risk theory Contains a comprehensive list of useful references

Book Description :

The book is a comprehensive treatment of classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (eg. for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation or periodicity. Special features of the book are the emphasis on change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas like queueing theory.

Book Description :

Download Ruin Probabilities book written by , available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Book Description :

Leading the way in this field, the Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment is the first publication to offer a modern, comprehensive and in-depth resource to the huge variety of disciplines involved. A truly international work, its coverage ranges across risk issues pertinent to life scientists, engineers, policy makers, healthcare professionals, the finance industry, the military and practising statisticians. Drawing on the expertise of world-renowned authors and editors in this field this title provides up-to-date material on drug safety, investment theory, public policy applications, transportation safety, public perception of risk, epidemiological risk, national defence and security, critical infrastructure, and program management. This major publication is easily accessible for all those involved in the field of risk assessment and analysis. For ease-of-use it is available in print and online.

Book Description :

The focus of this book is on the two major areas of risk theory: aggregate claims distributions and ruin theory.

Book Description :

Download Actuarial Research Clearing House book written by , available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Book Description :

Stochastic Processes for Insurance and Finance offers a thorough yet accessible reference for researchers and practitioners of insurance mathematics. Building on recent and rapid developments in applied probability, the authors describe in general terms models based on Markov processes, martingales and various types of point processes. Discussing frequently asked insurance questions, the authors present a coherent overview of the subject and specifically address: The principal concepts from insurance and finance Practical examples with real life data Numerical and algorithmic procedures essential for modern insurance practices Assuming competence in probability calculus, this book will provide a fairly rigorous treatment of insurance risk theory recommended for researchers and students interested in applied probability as well as practitioners of actuarial sciences. Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics

Book Description :

#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • A bold work from the author of The Black Swan that challenges many of our long-held beliefs about risk and reward, politics and religion, finance and personal responsibility In his most provocative and practical book yet, one of the foremost thinkers of our time redefines what it means to understand the world, succeed in a profession, contribute to a fair and just society, detect nonsense, and influence others. Citing examples ranging from Hammurabi to Seneca, Antaeus the Giant to Donald Trump, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows how the willingness to accept one’s own risks is an essential attribute of heroes, saints, and flourishing people in all walks of life. As always both accessible and iconoclastic, Taleb challenges long-held beliefs about the values of those who spearhead military interventions, make financial investments, and propagate religious faiths. Among his insights: • For social justice, focus on symmetry and risk sharing. You cannot make profits and transfer the risks to others, as bankers and large corporations do. You cannot get rich without owning your own risk and paying for your own losses. Forcing skin in the game corrects this asymmetry better than thousands of laws and regulations. • Ethical rules aren’t universal. You’re part of a group larger than you, but it’s still smaller than humanity in general. • Minorities, not majorities, run the world. The world is not run by consensus but by stubborn minorities imposing their tastes and ethics on others. • You can be an intellectual yet still be an idiot. “Educated philistines” have been wrong on everything from Stalinism to Iraq to low-carb diets. • Beware of complicated solutions (that someone was paid to find). A simple barbell can build muscle better than expensive new machines. • True religion is commitment, not just faith. How much you believe in something is manifested only by what you’re willing to risk for it. The phrase “skin in the game” is one we have often heard but rarely stopped to truly dissect. It is the backbone of risk management, but it’s also an astonishingly rich worldview that, as Taleb shows in this book, applies to all aspects of our lives. As Taleb says, “The symmetry of skin in the game is a simple rule that’s necessary for fairness and justice, and the ultimate BS-buster,” and “Never trust anyone who doesn’t have skin in the game. Without it, fools and crooks will benefit, and their mistakes will never come back to haunt them.”

Book Description :

The landmark five-book series--all together in one boxed set The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don't understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This boxed set includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME

Book Description :

This volume is a collection of papers presented at the international conference on Nonlinear Mathematics for Uncertainty and Its Applications (NLMUA2011), held at Beijing University of Technology during the week of September 7--9, 2011. The conference brought together leading researchers and practitioners involved with all aspects of nonlinear mathematics for uncertainty and its applications. Over the last fifty years there have been many attempts in extending the theory of classical probability and statistical models to the generalized one which can cope with problems of inference and decision making when the model-related information is scarce, vague, ambiguous, or incomplete. Such attempts include the study of nonadditive measures and their integrals, imprecise probabilities and random sets, and their applications in information sciences, economics, finance, insurance, engineering, and social sciences. The book presents topics including nonadditive measures and nonlinear integrals, Choquet, Sugeno and other types of integrals, possibility theory, Dempster-Shafer theory, random sets, fuzzy random sets and related statistics, set-valued and fuzzy stochastic processes, imprecise probability theory and related statistical models, fuzzy mathematics, nonlinear functional analysis, information theory, mathematical finance and risk managements, decision making under various types of uncertainty, and others.

Book Description :

This book involves ideas/results from the topics of mathematical, information, and data sciences, in connection with the main research interests of Professor Pardo that can be summarized as Information Theory with Applications to Statistical Inference. This book is a tribute to Professor Leandro Pardo, who has chaired the Department of Statistics and OR of the Complutense University in Madrid, and he has been also President of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research. In this way, the contributions have been structured into three parts, which often overlap to a greater or lesser extent, namely Trends in Mathematical Sciences (Part I) Trends in Information Sciences (Part II) Trends in Data Sciences (Part III) The contributions gathered in this book have offered either new developments from a theoretical and/or computational and/or applied point of view, or reviews of recent literature of outstanding developments. They have been applied through nice examples in climatology, chemistry, economics, engineering, geology, health sciences, physics, pandemics, and socioeconomic indicators. Consequently, the intended audience of this book is mainly statisticians, mathematicians, computer scientists, and so on, but users of these disciplines as well as experts in the involved applications may certainly find this book a very interesting read.

Book Description :

A comprehensive and accessible presentation of probabilityand stochastic processes with emphasis on key theoretical conceptsand real-world applications With a sophisticated approach, Probability and StochasticProcesses successfully balances theory and applications in apedagogical and accessible format. The book’s primary focusis on key theoretical notions in probability to provide afoundation for understanding concepts and examples related tostochastic processes. Organized into two main sections, the book begins by developingprobability theory with topical coverage on probability measure;random variables; integration theory; product spaces, conditionaldistribution, and conditional expectations; and limit theorems. Thesecond part explores stochastic processes and related conceptsincluding the Poisson process, renewal processes, Markov chains,semi-Markov processes, martingales, and Brownian motion. Featuringa logical combination of traditional and complex theories as wellas practices, Probability and Stochastic Processes alsoincludes: Multiple examples from disciplines such as business,mathematical finance, and engineering Chapter-by-chapter exercises and examples to allow readers totest their comprehension of the presented material A rigorous treatment of all probability and stochasticprocesses concepts An appropriate textbook for probability and stochastic processescourses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate level inmathematics, business, and electrical engineering, Probabilityand Stochastic Processes is also an ideal reference forresearchers and practitioners in the fields of mathematics,engineering, and finance.

Book Description :

This workshop was the first of its kind in bringing together researchers in probability theory, stochastic processes, insurance and finance from mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Australia and the United States. In particular, as China has joined the WTO, there is a growing demand for expertise in actuarial sciences and quantitative finance. The strong probability research and graduate education programs in many of China's universities can be enriched by their outreach in fields that are of growing importance to the country's expanding economy, and the workshop and its proceedings can be regarded as the first step in this direction. This book presents the most recent developments in probability, finance and actuarial sciences, especially in Chinese probability research. It focuses on the integration of probability theory with applications in finance and insurance. It also brings together academic researchers and those in industry and government. With contributions by leading authorities on probability theory OCo particularly limit theory and large derivations, valuation of credit derivatives, portfolio selection, dynamic protection and ruin theory OCo it is an essential source of ideas and information for graduate students and researchers in probability theory, mathematical finance and actuarial sciences, and thus every university should acquire a copy. The proceedings have been selected for coverage in: . OCo Index to Scientific & Technical Proceedings (ISTP CDROM version / ISI Proceedings). OCo Index to Social Sciences & Humanities Proceedings- (ISSHP- / ISI Proceedings). OCo Index to Social Sciences & Humanities Proceedings (ISSHP CDROM version / ISI Proceedings). OCo CC Proceedings OCo Engineering & Physical Sciences. Contents: Limit Theorems for Moving Averages (T L Lai); On Large Deviations for Moving Average Processes (L Wu); Recent Progress on Self-Normalized Limit Theorems (Q-M Shao); Limit Theorems for Independent Self-Normalized Sums (B-Y Jing); Phase Changes in Random Recursive Structures and Algorithms (H-K Hwang); JohnsonOCoMehl Tessellations: Asymptotics and Inferences (S N Chiu); Rapid Simulation of Correlated Defaults and the Valuation of Basket Default Swaps (Z Zhang et al.); Dynamic Protection with Optimal Withdrawal (H U Gerber & E S W Shiu); Ruin Probability for a Model Under Markovian Switching Regime (H Yang & G Yin); and other papers. Readership: Researchers and graduate students in probability and statistics."

Book Description :

An update of one of the most trusted books on constructing and analyzing actuarial models Written by three renowned authorities in the actuarial field, Loss Models, Third Edition upholds the reputation for excellence that has made this book required reading for the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) qualification examinations. This update serves as a complete presentation of statistical methods for measuring risk and building models to measure loss in real-world events. This book maintains an approach to modeling and forecasting that utilizes tools related to risk theory, loss distributions, and survival models. Random variables, basic distributional quantities, the recursive method, and techniques for classifying and creating distributions are also discussed. Both parametric and non-parametric estimation methods are thoroughly covered along with advice for choosing an appropriate model. Features of the Third Edition include: Extended discussion of risk management and risk measures, including Tail-Value-at-Risk (TVaR) New sections on extreme value distributions and their estimation Inclusion of homogeneous, nonhomogeneous, and mixed Poisson processes Expanded coverage of copula models and their estimation Additional treatment of methods for constructing confidence regions when there is more than one parameter The book continues to distinguish itself by providing over 400 exercises that have appeared on previous SOA and CAS examinations. Intriguing examples from the fields of insurance and business are discussed throughout, and all data sets are available on the book's FTP site, along with programs that assist with conducting loss model analysis. Loss Models, Third Edition is an essential resource for students and aspiring actuaries who are preparing to take the SOA and CAS preliminary examinations. It is also a must-have reference for professional actuaries, graduate students in the actuarial field, and anyone who works with loss and risk models in their everyday work. To explore our additional offerings in actuarial exam preparation visit www.wiley.com/go/actuarialexamprep.

Book Description :

Serving as the foundation for a one-semester course in stochastic processes for students familiar with elementary probability theory and calculus, Introduction to Stochastic Modeling, Fourth Edition, bridges the gap between basic probability and an intermediate level course in stochastic processes. The objectives of the text are to introduce students to the standard concepts and methods of stochastic modeling, to illustrate the rich diversity of applications of stochastic processes in the applied sciences, and to provide exercises in the application of simple stochastic analysis to realistic problems. New to this edition: Realistic applications from a variety of disciplines integrated throughout the text, including more biological applications Plentiful, completely updated problems Completely updated and reorganized end-of-chapter exercise sets, 250 exercises with answers New chapters of stochastic differential equations and Brownian motion and related processes Additional sections on Martingale and Poisson process Realistic applications from a variety of disciplines integrated throughout the text Extensive end of chapter exercises sets, 250 with answers Chapter 1-9 of the new edition are identical to the previous edition New! Chapter 10 - Random Evolutions New! Chapter 11- Characteristic functions and Their Applications

Book Description :

The book contains important material on topics that are relevant for recent insurance and actuarial developments including determining solvency measures, fair-value computations, reserving, ranking of risks, modelling dependencies and the use of generalized linear models. Numerous exercises and the hints for solving them make the book useful as a textbook. Practical paradigms in insurance are presented in a way that is appealing to actuaries in their daily business.

Book Description :

This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Mathematical Aspects of Computer and Information Sciences, MACIS 2017, held in Vienna, Austria, in November 2017. The 28 revised papers and 8 short papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 67 submissions. The papers are organized in the following topical sections: foundation of algorithms in mathematics, engineering and scientific computation; combinatorics and codes in computer science; data modeling and analysis; and mathematical aspects of information security and cryptography.

Book Description :

These notes represent our summary of much of the recent research that has been done in recent years on approximations and bounds that have been developed for compound distributions and related quantities which are of interest in insurance and other areas of application in applied probability. The basic technique employed in the derivation of many bounds is induc tive, an approach that is motivated by arguments used by Sparre-Andersen (1957) in connection with a renewal risk model in insurance. This technique is both simple and powerful, and yields quite general results. The bounds themselves are motivated by the classical Lundberg exponential bounds which apply to ruin probabilities, and the connection to compound dis tributions is through the interpretation of the ruin probability as the tail probability of a compound geometric distribution. The initial exponential bounds were given in Willmot and Lin (1994), followed by the nonexpo nential generalization in Willmot (1994). Other related work on approximations for compound distributions and applications to various problems in insurance in particular and applied probability in general is also discussed in subsequent chapters. The results obtained or the arguments employed in these situations are similar to those for the compound distributions, and thus we felt it useful to include them in the notes. In many cases we have included exact results, since these are useful in conjunction with the bounds and approximations developed.

Book Description :

Provides a comprehensive coverage of both the deterministic and stochastic models of life contingencies, risk theory, credibility theory, multi-state models, and an introduction to modern mathematical finance. New edition restructures the material to fit into modern computational methods and provides several spreadsheet examples throughout. Covers the syllabus for the Institute of Actuaries subject CT5, Contingencies Includes new chapters covering stochastic investments returns, universal life insurance. Elements of option pricing and the Black-Scholes formula will be introduced.