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Drought Early Warning And Forecasting

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Drought Early Warning and Forecasting

Drought Early Warning and Forecasting Book
Author : Chris Funk,Shraddhanand Shukla
Publisher : Elsevier
Release : 2020-07-03
ISBN : 0128140119
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Drought Early Warning and Forecasting: Theory and Practice provides a comprehensive overview of drought-related scientific research, describes the available tools and techniques, and informs readers on how to use these tools and techniques to effectively identify, predict and communicate potential drought-related disasters. Throughout the book, the authors incorporate 'climate change' as a pragmatic component of effective drought early warning, dealing explicitly with climate non-stationarity, increased climate variability, and the impacts of air temperature extremes. This comprehensive resource simultaneously addresses the physical, social and information management aspects of drought early warning. Assesses past and future drought impacts, drought monitoring, prediction and early warning systems, vulnerability and mitigation Presents a comprehensive and integrated treatment of observations, models and vulnerability assessments, allowing readers to learn about the primary climatic dynamics that lead to drought Examines long-term changes in drought and identifies the latest tools and approaches being used to monitor and forecast drought to mitigate socioeconomic losses

Drought Early Warning and Forecasting

Drought Early Warning and Forecasting Book
Author : Chris Funk,Shraddhanand Shukla
Publisher : Elsevier
Release : 2020-06-03
ISBN : 0128140127
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Drought risk management involves three pillars: drought early warning, drought vulnerability and risk assessment, and drought preparedness, mitigation, and response. This book collects in one place a description of all the key components of the first pillar, and describes strategies for fitting these pieces together. The best modern drought early warning systems incorporate and integrate a broad array of environmental information sources: weather station observations, satellite imagery, land surface and crop model simulations, and weather and climate model forecasts, and analyze this information in context-relevant ways that take into account exposure and vulnerability. Drought Early Warning and Forecasting: Theory and Practice assembles a comprehensive overview of these components, providing examples drawn from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United States Drought Monitor. This book simultaneously addresses the physical, social, and information management aspects of drought early warning, and informs readers about the tools, techniques, and conceptual models required to effectively identify, predict, and communicate potential drought-related disasters. This book is a key text for postgraduate scientists and graduate and advanced undergraduate students in hydrology, geography, earth sciences, meteorology, climatology, and environmental sciences programs. Professionals dealing with disaster management and drought forecasting will also find this book beneficial to their work. Describes and discusses the strategies and components used in effective and integrated 21st century drought early warning systems Provides a one-stop-shop that describes in one book the observations, models, forecasts, indices, social context, and theory used in drought early warning Identifies the latest tools and approaches used to monitor and forecast drought, sources of predictive skill, and discusses the technical and theoretical details required to use these tools and approaches in a real-world setting

Flood and Drought Forecasting and Early Warning

Flood and Drought Forecasting and Early Warning Book
Author : Joel Kibiiy,James Kivuva,Paul Karogo,Johnson Maina Muturi,Simeon Otieno Dulo,Mohamed Roushdy,Tumaini A. Kimaro,James B. Magezi-Akiiki
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2010
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Flood and Drought Forecasting and Early Warning book written by Joel Kibiiy,James Kivuva,Paul Karogo,Johnson Maina Muturi,Simeon Otieno Dulo,Mohamed Roushdy,Tumaini A. Kimaro,James B. Magezi-Akiiki, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Early Warning of Drought in Europe

Early Warning of Drought in Europe Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2015
ISBN : 9789279455971
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

The performances of the first month of the ECMWF probabilistic extended forecast and the seasonal forecast to predict droughts over Europe are compared. The Standardized Precipitation Index is used to quantify droughts. It can be shown that on average the extended forecast has higher skill than the seasonal forecast whilst both outperform climatology. No significant spatial or temporal patterns can be observed but the scores are improved when we focus on large scale droughts. This report further analyses several different methods to convert the probabilistic forecasts of SPI into a Boolean drought warning. It can be demonstrated that methodologies which convert low percentiles of the forecasted cumulative distribution function of SPI into warnings are superior in comparison to alternatives such as the mean or the median of the ensemble. This work demonstrates that around 40% of droughts in Europe are correctly forecasted one month in advance. Nevertheless, due to the lack of the significant difference between the distributions of the ensemble members for false alarms or misses on one hand side and correct forecasts on the other hand side, it is not yet possible to quantify the uncertainty of the drought forecasts.

Creating a Drought Early Warning System for the 21st Century

Creating a Drought Early Warning System for the 21st Century Book
Author : Bill Richardson
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2007-12-01
ISBN : 9781422312827
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

In 1996, the Western Governors set an aggressive goal to change the way our nat. prepares for & responds to droughts. Subsequent efforts led to the creation of the Nat. Drought Policy Comm. (NDPC), which issued its recommendations in May 2000 to establish such a nat. policy. Improved monitoring & forecasting is fundamental to a proactive nat. drought policy. Better science will lead to better & more timely decisions, thus reducing or mitigating a drought¿s impacts. In Feb. 2003, discussions were initiated to form a partnership between Governors & the NOAA to develop a vision & recommendations for establishing an improved drought monitoring & forecasting system. This report is the first product of that partnership. Illustrations.

Drought Forecasts and Warnings in Zimbabwe

Drought Forecasts and Warnings in Zimbabwe Book
Author : Jayne Stack
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 1998
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Drought Forecasts and Warnings in Zimbabwe book written by Jayne Stack, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Early Warning Systems for Natural Disaster Reduction

Early Warning Systems for Natural Disaster Reduction Book
Author : Jochen Zschau,Andreas N. Küppers
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
Release : 2013-11-11
ISBN : 3642559034
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Written for a broad audience this book offers a comprehensive account of early warning systems for hydro meteorological disasters such as floods and storms, and for geological disasters such as earthquakes. One major theme is the increasingly important role in early warning systems played by the rapidly evolving fields of space and information technology. The authors, all experts in their respective fields, offer a comprehensive and in-depth insight into the current and future perspectives for early warning systems. The text is aimed at decision-makers in the political arena, scientists, engineers and those responsible for public communication and dissemination of warnings.

Drought Early Warning System

Drought Early Warning System Book
Author : Muni Rathnam Pantula
Publisher : Notion Press
Release : 2016-06-20
ISBN : 1945497432
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This book encompasses the characterisation of meteorological drought by the newly invented index called “SPI – Standardised Precipitation index” approved by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in June 2011. It is a simple index with precipitation as the only parameter and can be computed for different scales (1-3-6-12-24 months) and compared across regions with different climatic zones. The author has depicted graphs with regard to trends, onset, end, magnitude with dates of occurrence of droughts over a period of 102 years with regard to rainfall and temperature with the aid of SPI and SPEI, for Anantapur District of Andhra Pradesh, India. To characterise the agricultural drought, climatological water balance was carried for a period of 30 years for the data. In this book a composite index called “Indian drought monitor” with ten indicators and indices has been developed for releasing drought information weekly considering and incorporating review from a group of climatologists, extension agents and others across the nation. This will lead the country economically forward.

Early Warning Systems for Drought and Desertification

Early Warning Systems for Drought and Desertification Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 1999
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Early Warning Systems for Drought and Desertification book written by , available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Droughts in Asian Monsoon Region

Droughts in Asian Monsoon Region Book
Author : Rajib Shaw,Huy Nguyen
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
Release : 2011-11-08
ISBN : 0857248634
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

The Asian monsoon region is one of these areas where consecutive years of droughts are causing severe problems for the lives and livelihoods of the communities. This book outlines the characteristics and challenges of the Asian monsoon drought and highlights innovative solutions and approaches undertaken in different parts of the region.

Hydrological Drought Forecasting in Africa at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales

Hydrological Drought Forecasting in Africa at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales Book
Author : Taylor & Francis Group
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2018-09-27
ISBN : 9781138373365
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Hydrological Drought Forecasting in Africa at Different Spatial and Temporal Scales book written by Taylor & Francis Group, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Reducing Disaster Early Warning Systems For Climate Change

Reducing Disaster  Early Warning Systems For Climate Change Book
Author : Ashbindu Singh,Zinta Zommers
Publisher : Springer
Release : 2014-05-12
ISBN : 9401785988
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Around the world, extreme weather events are becoming increasingly "the new normal" and are expected to increase in the 21st century as a result of climate change. Extreme weather events have devastating impacts on human lives and national economies. This book examines ways to protect people from hazards using early warning systems, and includes contributions from experts from four different continents representing 14 different universities, 8 government agencies and two UN agencies. Chapters detail critical components of early warning systems, ways to identify vulnerable communities, predict hazards and deliver information. Unique satellite images illustrate the transnational impact of disasters, while case studies provide detailed examples of warning systems. With contributors from the fields of economics, ethics, meteorology, geography and biology, this book is essential reading for anyone interested in disaster risk reduction or climate change.

Heads Up

Heads Up  Book
Author : Michael H. Glantz
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2009
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This publication provides a review of early warning systems in operation, while exploring a range of hazards including hurricanes, heat waves, floods, droughts, tsunami and volcanoes.--Publisher's description.

Drought Network News

Drought Network News Book
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 1989
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Drought Network News book written by , available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Physically Based Evaporative Demand as a Drought Metric

Physically Based Evaporative Demand as a Drought Metric Book
Author : Daniel John McEvoy
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 2015
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Lack of sufficient early warning from drought monitoring and prediction tools that rely heavily on precipitation and soil moisture has prompted the need for development of new drought metrics that can account for evaporative dynamics and interactions between the land surface-atmosphere interface. Previous studies have shown that using anomalies in actual evapotranspiration (ET) estimated from satellite imagery can provide some drought early warning during the growing season, but there are a number of limitations to satellite monitoring that encourage more research on easily accessible and real-time (or forecasted) evaporative demand (E0) drought tools. The focus of this study is the development of a novel drought metric that relies only physically based E0 driven by temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, and humidity, which can all be obtained from gridded weather data and dynamical forecast model output. An evaluation of several gridded data products was first carried out using the Nevada Climate-ecohydrological Assessment Network (NevCAN) in a remote part of the Great Basin to investigate biases and deficiencies that are inherent to regions with sparse observations. It was determined that the University of Idaho Gridded Meteorological Data (METDATA) was most suitable to drive a new drought index, the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI). EDDI was computed over CONUS for the period of 1979–2013 and compared against other commonly used drought indices. During rapid onset drought, or flash drought (i.e., 2011–2012 in the Midwest) EDDI was found to lead other indicators by as much as 1–3 months. Given that E0 contains no precipitation input, the potential exists to improve seasonal drought predictions, which currently suffer from a lack of skillful precipitation forecasts. Skill of seasonal E0 anomaly forecasts were assessed over CONUS using the Climate Forecast Version 2 (CFSv2) hindcasts for 1982–2009 and METDATA was used as baseline observations. E0 forecast skill during drought events was consistently greater than precipitation, with much improved skill over parts of the central and northeast U.S. during the growing season. Results from this study suggest that continued efforts should be put towards incorporating physically based E0 in operational drought monitoring and prediction frameworks.

Spatio Temporal Drought Characterization and Forecasting Using Indices and Artificial Neural Networks A Case of the Upper Tana River Basin Kenya

Spatio Temporal Drought Characterization and Forecasting Using Indices and Artificial Neural Networks  A Case of the Upper Tana River Basin  Kenya Book
Author : Raphael Muli Wambua
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
Release : 2019-04-08
ISBN : 3668917477
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Doctoral Thesis / Dissertation from the year 2016 in the subject Engineering - Civil Engineering, grade: 80.0, Egerton University, course: AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING, language: English, abstract: Drought is a critical stochastic natural disaster that adversely affects water resources, ecosystems and people. Drought is a condition characterized by scarcity of precipitation and/or water quantity that negatively affects the global, regional and local land-scales. At both global and regional scales, drought frequency and severity have been increasing leading to direct and indirect decline in water resources. Increase in drought severity and frequency in the upper Tana River basin, Kenya, water resources systems have been adversely affected. Timely detection and forecasting of drought is crucial in planning and management of water resources. The main objective of this research was to formulate the most appropriate models for assessment and forecasting of drought using Indices and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for the basin. Hydro-meteorlogical data for the period 1970-2010 at sixteen hydrometric stations was used to test the performance of the indices in forecasting of the future drought at 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18 and 24-months lead times, by constructing ANN models with different time delays. Drought conditions at monthly temporal resolution were evaluated using selected drought indices. The occurrence of drought was investigated using non-parametric Man-kendall trend test. Spatial distribution of drought severity was determined using Kriging interpolation techinique. In addition, a standard Nonlinear-Integrated Drought Index (NDI), for drought forecasting in the basin was developed using hydro-meteoroogical data for the river basin. The results of spaial drought show that the south-eastern parts of the basin are more prone to drought risks than the north-western areas. The Mann-Kendall trend test indicates an increasing drought trend in the south-eastern and no trend in north-western areas of the basin. Development of Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) function, NDI and characteristic curves defining the return period and the probability of different drought magnitudes based on Drought Indices (DIs) was achieved. Drought Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves were developed. The formulated NDI tool can be adopted for a synchronized assessment and forecasting of all the three operational drought types in the basin. The results can be used in assisting water resources managers for timely detection and forecasting of drought conditions in prioritized planning of drought preparedness and early warning systems.

Report on New Projects

Report on New Projects Book
Author : United Nations Environment Programme
Publisher : Unknown
Release : 1988
ISBN : 0987650XXX
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Download Report on New Projects book written by United Nations Environment Programme, available in PDF, EPUB, and Kindle, or read full book online anywhere and anytime. Compatible with any devices.

Hydrometeorology

Hydrometeorology Book
Author : Kevin Sene
Publisher : Springer
Release : 2015-12-09
ISBN : 331923546X
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

This second edition explores some of the latest techniques used to provide forecasts for a wide range of water-related applications in areas such as floods, droughts, water resources and environmental impacts. The practical uses can range from decisions on whether to issue a flood warning through to providing longer-term advice such as on when to plant and harvest crops or how to operate reservoirs for water supply and hydropower schemes. It provides an introduction to the topic for practitioners and researchers and useful background for courses in areas such as civil engineering, water resources, meteorology and hydrology. As in the first edition, the first section considers topics such as monitoring and forecasting techniques, demand forecasting and how forecasts are interpreted when issuing warnings or advice. Separate chapters are now included for meteorological and catchment monitoring techniques allowing a more in-depth discussion of topics such as weather radar and water quality observations. The chapters on meteorological and hydrological forecasting now include a greater emphasis on rainfall forecasting and ensemble and probabilistic techniques. Regarding the interpretation of forecasts, an updated chapter discusses topics such as approaches to issuing warnings and the use of decision support systems and risk-based techniques. Given the rapid pace of development in flash flood fore casting techniques, flash floods and slower responding riverine floods are now considered in separate chapters. This includes more detail on forecasting floods in large river basins and on methods for providing early warnings of debris flows, surface water flooding and ice jam and dam break floods. Later chapters now include more information on developing areas such as environmental modelling and seasonal flow forecasting. As before examples of operational systems are provided throughout and the extensive sets of references which were a feature of the first edition have been revised and updated. Key themes • floods • droughts • meteorological observations • catchment monitoring • meteorological forecasts • hydrological forecasts • demand forecasts • reservoirs • water resources • water quality • decision support • data assimilation • probabilistic forecasts Kevin Sene is a civil engineer and researcher with wide experience in flood risk management, water resources and hydrometeorology. He has previously published books on flood warning, forecasting and emergency response and flash floods (Springer 2008, 2013).

Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought

Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought Book
Author : Vijendra K. Boken,Arthur P. Cracknell,Ronald L. Heathcote
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Release : 2005-04-14
ISBN : 9780198036784
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Agricultural droughts affect whole societies, leading to higher food costs, threatened economies, and even famine. In order to mitigate such effects, researchers must first be able to monitor them, and then predict them; however no book currently focuses on accurate monitoring or prediction of these devastating kinds of droughts. To fill this void, the editors of Monitoring and Predicting Agricultural Drought have assembled a team of expert contributors from all continents to make a global study, describing biometeorological models and monitoring methods for agricultural droughts. These models and methods note the relationships between precipitation, soil moisture, and crop yields, using data gathered from conventional and remote sensing techniques. The coverage of the book includes probabilistic models and techniques used in America, Europe and the former USSR, Africa, Asia, and Australia, and it concludes with coverage of climate change and resultant shifts in agricultural productivity, drought early warning systems, and famine mitigation. This will be an essential collection for those who must advise governments or international organizations on the current scope, likelihood, and impact of agricultural droughts. Sponsored by the World Meterological Organization

Drought Prediction

Drought Prediction Book
Author : Taye Tolu Mekonnen,Kumudha Raimond
Publisher : LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Release : 2014-04
ISBN : 9783659276095
Language : En, Es, Fr & De

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Book Description :

Early days of technology employed traditional methods like rainfall distribution, duration of sunshine, and the related meteorological data to forecast a forthcoming event regarding drought. Recently, satellite remote sensing has been considered as an appropriate tool for deriving information in spatial and temporal domains by providing multi-spectral reflectance data at regular intervals. In this book, analysis of series of deviation of NDVI images, extraction of virtual drought objects from the series, and investigation for drought patterns from historical image for growing season was made. Subsequent to this, appropriate prediction model of these patterns was developed for early measures while within the same season. The virtual drought objects extracted from images over the growing season were found to exhibit a pattern for the historical drought years. It is understood that this work will give new views for ways in drought prediction for early warning and crop condition monitoring at near real-time for agricultural sectors.